It’s been a long time coming but I’m back and (hopefully) better than ever.
While I was gone, the USMNT made it back to the World Cup! They finished third in CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying after losing their final game to Costa Rica 2-0. Canada finished in first, Mexico finished in second and Costa Rica finished in fourth–meaning they’ll have to play New Zealand to decide who makes it to the tournament.
It was far from perfect but the US found a way to take care of business at home and earn their spot on the world’s biggest stage in Qatar.
But where do they stand in their grand return? Who will they play and what are their chances of making waves at their first World Cup since 2014?
Group Overview
On Friday, April 1st, the 2022 World Cup Draw was held to determine the groups for the tournament. Despite finishing in third, the US were put in Pot 2 based on their FIFA ranking–along with Mexico. Funnily enough, Canada were placed in Pot 4 despite their first-place finish in qualifying.
Here are all the groups:
There’s a lot to unpack here, including some teams/spots that have yet to be determined. For one, there is the Euro Play-Off. Ukraine were set to play Scotland back in March but because of the war, their game has been postponed until June. The winner of that game will play Wales, with the winner qualifying for the tournament. Next are the two Intercontinental Playoffs. The first one will be see either Australia or UAE face off against Peru while the second one will see Costa Rica face off against New Zealand.
What I like about this draw is that lack of a standout “Group of Death.” Each group has an exciting mix of teams that will sure to make this an entertaining tournament. My favorites include Group B, C, F, G and H.
Of course I had to mention Group B. The US have found themselves in an interesting group–one that could have been a lot worse but is not terrible. It certainly won’t be easy, but I think the US might have a chance. Let’s dive in by going in the order of games.
Game 1: Monday, November 21st against Ukraine/Scotland/Wales
What a way to start the tournament off for the US. An opening-day matchup against a European team to baptize this young American team by fire. While their opponent should have been decided by now, unfortunate circumstances have changed that.
If I’m the US, I’m hoping for Scotland. Of these three teams, they are the lowest ranked at 39 (Ukraine are 27 and Wales are 18). They have not qualified for the tournament since 1999, a tournament that saw them draw one game and lose two others to finish bottom of their group. Their last tournament was the 2020 Euros–which saw them underperform yet again and finish bottom of their group. Despite all this, they are 6-0-1 in their last seven World Cup Qualifying games and have drawn their most recent two friendlies. While they do have strong players in Kiernan Tierney of Arsenal and Scott McTominay of Manchester United, they are overall the weakest of these three teams.
Ukraine is the next highest of the three teams. They are obviously in a less-than-ideal situation because of Russia’s invasion. However, when they do return to play Scotland in June, they will most likely be even more inspired to play well and succeed. Furthermore, if they make it to the World Cup then I can imagine them being a fan-favorite. As for their history, they only have one previous World Cup appearance; they qualified in 2006 and made it all the way to the quarterfinals, beating Switzerland on penalties before losing to eventual champions Italy. In the 2020 Euros, they also made it to the quarterfinals after beating Sweden. Their talisman, Andriy Yarmolenko of West Ham United, will surely lead the way for his team.
The US’ worst-case scenario is Wales, a team full of talented players and one big-time game-changer: Gareth Bale. Even though he hasn’t featured much for Real Madrid this season, he is still arguably the best player for his national team. With 33 goals in 99 games (including a game-winning brace in their most recent play-off game against Austria), his health and form is crucial for Wales’ success in Qatar. Their lone World Cup appearance came back in 1958 when they made it to the quarterfinals. More recently, they made the last two Euros (their firsts) after years of missing out. In fact, in their first-ever tournament, they made a Cinderella run to the semi-finals where they lost to Portugal.
Game 2: Friday, November 25th against England
US fans wanted it and now they got it. Even though a game on Thanksgiving would have been even more poetic, Black Friday isn’t too shabby either.
This will be the biggest test for the US. England are a top-tier European team, sitting at #5 in the FIFA rankings. They finished at the top of their qualifying group, automatically qualifying for the tournament with a record of 8-2-0. All of this comes after their superb run at the 2020 Euros which saw them lose to Italy in the final. They have talent and depth up and down the roster with a good blend of youth and experience. They have a 29-21-19 record in 69 World Cup games, having won in 1966 and, more recently, having finished in fourth in 2018.
Game 3: Tuesday, November 29th against Iran
To me, this is the most intriguing of all the games in the group. While some people may write off Iran, I think it is a mistake. They are the highest ranked team from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) at 21, having finished at the top of their group in qualifying by going 8-1-1. They have qualified for the World Cup six times, including five of the last seven tournaments (including this year’s edition). While they have never gotten out of the group stage, they have had more success in the AFC Asian Cup. In 2019, the most recent edition, they reached the semi-finals. However, they did win three consecutive cups from 1968-1976. In Qatar, they will look to make use of their relative home-field advantage to cause problems within the group–especially if Sardar Azmoun is healthy. He has 39 goals in just 60 appearances, including ten in qualifying.
It’s interesting to note Iran’s last game against the US in a World Cup. It occurred in 1998 during the group stage and during a time of tension between the two countries. Iran ended up winning 2-1–their first win in a World Cup.
Predictions and Thoughts
As I said before, I would say this is a middle-ground group that could go either way for the US. It could’ve gone a lot worse for them but thankfully I see a way out for them.
Then again, it all depends on who makes it from the European Play-Off. Whoever makes it from those three teams will certainly dictate the overall difficulty of the group. Additionally, not knowing who the final team is makes it hard to make predictions.
With that being said, here’s my prediciton:
- England
- Euro Play-Off
- US
- Iran
England are the clear favorites of the group, hence why I have them in first. After that it gets fuzzy and difficult to predict. What I will say though is that I have the US in third for a reason; their inexperience at a high level worries me, including some positional issues that, while they could change between now and then, are worrying (I’ll go into them soon). It is important to note that they are the youngest of all the teams and I think just qualifying is a success in itself. Getting out of the group stage would be an even greater success but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.
But to be honest, I don’t think it matters. After the disaster from the last World Cup cycle, the USMNT and US fans should just be thankful that they have something to look forward to and a team to cheer for. However, anything can happen in a World Cup so I’m not counting them out just yet.
So, in the meantime, prepare for what will be a whirlwind, entertaining tournament. Get your jerseys ready, your flags ready and, most importantly, “your basements ready.”
Four Score Soccer 